Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market Advisory Service

Quarterly Report Sample Page

Hogs (Oct. 10, 2005)

Since the only viable, long-term count in hogs indicates that a 5.50-year BULL CYCLE peaked at the May 2004 high (82.70), it is likely that a MAJOR DOWNTURN will occur...at some point. At present, however, because the wave-progression from the 2004 top is rather unusual (as compared to other markets in similar positions), I’m NOT at all clear on the exact, intermediate-term position. In essence, because BOTH declining movements since the 2004 top have subdivided into UNUSUALLY SMALL, a-b-c movements (in terms of time), AND the intervening, (x)-wave rally was abnormally long (time wise), it is impossible to currently determine whether the August 2005 continuation chart low (59.00) marked a significant, CYCLE-WAVE-A, OR a less important c-wave...within an ongoing TRIPLE-THREE formation. Under the first interpretation, which indicates that an initial, CYCLE-WAVE-A has bottomed, a high potential selling opportunity will NOT occur until primary waves -a-up, b-down and then c-up have traced-out. Which, considering that we are just in wave-a-up now, suggests that the FINAL TOP will not occur until early next year. In the event prices are just in a primary wave-X rally presently, however, then an advance of about HALF the size of the other scenario should be developing. In this case, once a LESSER, (a)-(b)-(c)-pattern-up from the August bottom can be effectively labeled, a MAJOR DOWNTURN ought to immediately follow. So, at this point, even though I don’t know which count is correct, we effectively want to sell anytime a completed, (a)-(b)-(c) rally can be labeled; especially if it coincides with any of our key resistance areas (see chart).

ORDER BRENT'S QUARTERLY REPORT